DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
 Demographic analysis provides a snapshot of households in the school district: Where are families concentrated, where are they moving, and why?
At its most basic, demographic analysis helps, planners reconcile student population with classroom numbers in a given school. Examining current and past trends through census data, population surveys, birth and death records, and other information, a demographic analysis will project population growth in the next five- and ten-year periods. California Basic Educational Data (CBED), which record student numbers for each grade level and school, will then be applied to these projections to create school-specific enrollment estimates.
Computer-assisted mapping greatly enhances the process of demographic analysis. The most commonly used program, ArcView, allows users to convert population data into a variety of visual representations.
Figure 1
Figure 1 demonstrates one use for computer-mapping technology. State recommendations for students' walking distances to school are ½ mile for elementary schools, 1 mile for middle schools, and 1 ½ miles for high school. In this map, the walking-distance radius is displayed for each middle school in the district. Once maps have been developed for all school levels, the district can more easily adjust enrollment boundaries to reflect future changes in the size and distribution of student populations.
- Public K-12 enrollment reached a record 6,298,769 in California in the 2003-2004 school year. [CDE.]
- Enrollment has more than tripled in the past fifty years. [CDE.]
- California's student population is projected to increase by 547,275 students by the 2007-2008 school year. [CDE.]
- California's population of 33 million is projected to reach 43.8 million by the year 2020. [California Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit.]
- JoAnn Koplin
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